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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to NYJ 15, Center-43-H.Bradley. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at GB 45 for 40 yards (6-J.Scott). PENALTY on NYJ-52-A.Wint, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -2.07 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model