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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 20 – New York Jets 35

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.28 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model