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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 46

Green Bay Packers 23 – New York Jets 35

What Actually Happened

(7:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 85-R.Tonyan to NYJ 35 for 11 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.57 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model