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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 69

New York Jets 35 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Punt formation) 45-R.Miles up the middle to NYJ 35 for 4 yards (44-A.Morrison).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.20 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model