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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 30 – New York Jets 35

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.62 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 1, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model