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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 15

New York Jets 35 – Green Bay Packers 38

What Actually Happened

(:21) 2-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model