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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 26 yards to KC 13, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-38-T.Madden.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.14 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP