Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Seattle Seahawks 24

(:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to SEA 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 31 for 10 yards (30-C.West).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.67 EP
62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model