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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at SEA 23 for 22 yards (26-LA.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.76 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model