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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.14 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model