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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 17

Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model