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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 30

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model