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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 72

Detroit Lions 9 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to MIN 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 15-B.Zylstra.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model