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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 6-M.Wile punts 58 yards to DET 8, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew to DET 13 for 5 yards (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP