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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 51

Detroit Lions 9 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model