Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 6-M.Wile punts 54 yards to DET 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 39-J.Agnew to DET 32 for 11 yards (31-A.Abdullah). PENALTY on DET-21-M.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.61 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model