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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 82

Detroit Lions 9 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 10 for -8 yards (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.93 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model