Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 76

Detroit Lions 9 – Minnesota Vikings 27

(3:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Cassel pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Golladay (20-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.11 EP
59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP