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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 25-L.Murray left end to DET 21 for -6 yards (32-T.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.39 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model