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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 29

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.59 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model