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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 37

Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 6-S.Martin punts 24 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-34-Z.Zenner.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.68 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP