Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 91

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(15:00) 6-M.Wile punts 29 yards to MIN 38, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-40-K.Brothers.

The Three Options

GO -3.55 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.59 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 91, worth -5.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model