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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 9

New York Giants 24 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 2-A.Rosas 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP