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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 21 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 2-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to NYG 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP