Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Giants 7

(6:22) 2-R.Sanchez punts 63 yards to NYG 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-46-L.Rhodes.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model