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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 6 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.15 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model