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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 9 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to WAS 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP