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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 32

Washington Commanders 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.11 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP