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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 22

Washington Commanders 10 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(5:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-A.East, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model