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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 9 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.11 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP