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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 70

Washington Commanders 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to TEN 20, Center-55-A.East, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson. PENALTY on WAS-55-A.East, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.04 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model