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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 6 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to WAS 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model