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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 94

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 21 yards to SEA 27, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-58-A.Calitro. Arz 92 Gardeck got hand on punted ball.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.46 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 94, worth -5.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 52, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model