4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 88

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to ARI 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at SEA 21 for 45 yards (51-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.31 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 88, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model