Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 85

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to ARI 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper MUFFS catch, and recovers at ARI 20. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 39 for 19 yards (24-S.Luani).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.67 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model