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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 48

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to SEA 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-D.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model