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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(3:48) (No Huddle) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to ARI 44 for 5 yards (54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.73 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model