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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 24

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 11-S.Janikowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model