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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.18 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model