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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 17

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model