4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to ARI 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 39 for 5 yards (51-B.Mingo, 38-T.Madden).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model