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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 52
Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0
What Actually Happened
(3:57) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald.
The Three Options
GO
+0.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -3.08 EP
KICK
-1.92 EP
- 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.79 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
