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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to ATL 8, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 24 for 16 yards (89-G.Sanborn; 32-J.Rodgers).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model