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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model