Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Condo, Touchback. PENALTY on ATL-46-J.Condo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.44 EP
62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model