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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.57 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model