Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 24

(14:57) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to ATL 25, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model