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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 8 at the 50
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Actually Happened
(10:24) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to TB 7, Center-46-J.Condo, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.90 EP
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.09 EP
KICK
-1.78 EP
- 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 72% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT
-0.77 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
