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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to TB 21, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.10 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP