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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:54) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to CIN 17, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 18 for 1 yard (34-Te.Edmunds, 20-C.Sutton).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.95 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model